VisitScotland, the national tourism agency for Scotland,used a scenario-planning process to untangle the complexityof the forthcoming war in Iraq. The scenarios explored theimpact of such a war on tourism against a backdrop of aneconomic environment of failing equity markets and GDP. In2003, Scotland was on the verge of a recession, andVisitScotland wanted to know how war would affect this economicenvironment and, simultaneously, how this would affectdifferent tourism markets. VisitScotland constructedfour scenarios: how the West was won, global Northern Ireland,new dawn, and into the valley of death. The scenarioshelped the organization develop policies and actions to dealwith contingencies in each scenario. More importantly, thearticle shows how VisitScotland managed the process, whatit did, and policy implications for the future.
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