Tomorrow’s World, Consumer, Tourist

I Yeoman, C Munro, U McMahon-Beattie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

31 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In a world of 9/11 and Tsunami, trying to predict the future of tourism is an uncertain science. VisitScotland, the national tourism agency of the Scotland uses a process of scenario planning and futures thinking in order to make sense of that uncertain future. This paper, examines how world mega trends and consumer behaviour will shape the future tourists. Four scenarios are constructed using the principles of cognitive mapping. Firstly, a right royal treatment scenario describes the business traveller as sophisticated, demanding and time sensitive. He/she wants exceptional service but is only willing to pay a premium price for added value rather than functionality. The tourist living local scenario describes the authentic tourist as someone that is discerning but wants to ‘live local’. They are from a networked society where information is freely available. They are ethical and inconspicuous consumers who have grown up in an affluent world. Their values and beliefs are based upon an untrusting and anxious society fuelled by safety. The authentic tourist feels safe in the past rather than the artificial world of Disneyland. The living the low-brow and high-brow life scenario reflects cultural capital being driven by an educated well-travelled consumer who is more concerned with experience than material possessions. The Asia gets going scenario is a realization that the middle classes of China are driving the growth of tourism across the world by 2015; here, Chinese tourists want to live their dreams.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)173-189
JournalJournal of Vacation Marketing
Volume12
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2006

Bibliographical note

Reference text: Yeoman, I. and Lederer, P. (2005) ‘Scottish
Tourism: Visions and Scenarios’, Journal of
Vacation Marketing 11(1): 67–83.
(2) Yeoman, I. and McMahon-Beattie, U.
(2005) ‘Designing a Scenario Planning
Process, Using a Blank Piece of Paper’,
Hopsitality & Tourism Research 6(1):
273–84.
(3) Yeoman, I. and Durie, A. (2005) ‘Retrospect
& Prospect: How the History of
Scottish Tourism Will Shape the Future’,
Paper submitted to Hospitality & Tourism
Management.
(4) WTO (2004) World Overview and Tourism
Market Trends. Madrid: World Tourism
Organisation.
Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie, ref. 2
above.
(6) Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie, ref. 2
above.
(7) Hines, A. (2003) ‘Applying Integral Futures
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(8) Future Foundation (2005) ‘Consumer
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http:///www.nvisiononline.co.uk
(9) The key trends identified by the Future
Foundation are assembled from their omnibus
survey of British and European adults.
The survey is recognized as one of the
leading consumer surveys, interviewing
1000 adults in the UK and 15,000 in Europe.
Historical data can be traced back to
1980, in order to track change. The Future
Foundation also works with the British
Household Survey Panel at Essex University.
VisitScotland subscribes to these services
in order to understand the drivers and
trends of consumers. Further details are
available at: http://www.futurefoundation.
net and http://www.nvisiononline.co.uk
(10) Willmott, M. and Nelson, W. (2003) Complicated
Lives: Sophisticated Consumers, Intricate
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(11) Maslow, A. and Lowry, R. (1998) Toward a
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(15) Munro, C. and Yeoman, I. (2005) ‘A
Macro-Environmental Analysis of UK
Regional Markets 2005–2008’, paper
submitted to The Journal of Vacation
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(16) Maslow and Lowry, ref. 11 above.
(17) Decision Explorer (2005) URL (consulted
20 March 2005): http://www.banxia.com
(18) Jones, M. (1993) Decision Explorer: Reference
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(19) Yeoman, I. (2005) ‘Developing a Conceptual
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(20) Sparrow, ref. 12 above.
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